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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 185.83+5.8%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: Kirk © who wrote (14505)9/20/2022 5:42:08 PM
From: Elroy  Read Replies (1) of 26804
 
Concern over soaring inflation and recession has cut into consumer spending on new smartphones, computers, TVs, and other electronic goods.

Hmmm, that may be true, but I think the bigger deal is that all the makers of everything in electronics were double and triple ordering in 2021 because supply chains couldn't deliver what they wanted. That likely causes a MASSIVE inventory build, as supply chains became able to better meet orders, and now the supply chain has to sell all its excess inventory before they order any more stuff.

Maybe PC and cell phone sales slowed down a touch, but inventory over build is more the culprit of this downturn than slowing demand, at least that's my guess.

The semi stocks peaked in about Dec 2021, and are already down significantly, so the question now is not when the semi weakness ends, it's when do the semi stock prices move higher?

I would be interested to read anyone's thoughts on that question........
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