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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing

PICK 46.18

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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zebadog

From: Sun Tzu	10/4/2022 11:21:39 AM
	1 Recommendation of 10599

What a rally! My whole portfolio is up 3.8%. I have no losers. And the median position is up 5.2% :) You guys remember a few days ago when so many of my GTC buys went through? That usually happens before market turnarounds. Pretty much all of them are in the green now. E.g. IOT@11.85, MRVL@43, OKTA@53.91 etc. Not all of them are green. INTC is still a little below 28 and ROKU is up only ~1%. I expect the market to keep going up for a few more days. Bear market rallies are on average 10% with a standard deviation of ~3.5%. So we're could be only half way up the rally or until the preannouncements pull us down (or push us up). One thing that could (sort of) indicate we've made bottom, would be central banks getting worried about systemic risk. BOE and BOJ have already intervened. Last night RBA (Australia) raised rates by only 25bp instead of the expected 50bp in part for this reason. The Fed has began talking about risks to the global economy. If they follow suite with RBA and raise only 50bp instead of 75bp, then the market will jump. Additionally, the inflation is coming down faster than it is priced in. All this said, after the rally (however high or long it goes), it will be about the earnings. Even if the Fed just slows down its pace of hikes or even pauses it, SPX is still likely 15% overpriced. So the odds are still with making lower lows or at best moving sideways (perhaps violently) for a while. Today's top 10

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