It's only 4 minutes long and very to-the-point but:
1. China will not become the superpower in chips (my comment...unless they annex TSMC).
2. Chips are of 3 types: Lo-Med-Hi capability/complexity. China is only currently capable of Lo.
3. Biden's new policy embargos Med and Hi actual chips.
4. The policy also embagos chip equipment...even low end.
5. China's manufacturing capability in Lo will even be difficult to maintain.
Very simplified and I think it's worth 4 minutes. Zeihan is highly repected in geopolitics (including predicting the Ukraine invasion in late 2021) and has other interesting comments about Ukraine/Russia, long term demographics that spell doom for Russia/China (e.g. China's one child policy coming home to roost will have a huge impact on demographics, ditto for Russia since they have a low birth rate).
I subscribe to his occasional short emails and videos. Here's the email accompanying yesterday's link:
China and Semiconductors
by Peter Zeihan on October 12, 2022
The Biden Administration has announced further limits on Chinese firms' ability to access foreign (read: US dominated) semiconductor technology. Many of my followers ask why I don't consider China a more capable potential threat to the global order than I do; the ability for Beijing to be cut off from global technology with what amounts to the stroke of a pen is one of them.
China remains utterly dependent on foreign countries for innovation and tech discovery, research, investment into its higher level manufacturing. It's not just that the most advanced chips powering everything from your smart phone to the cloud and advanced computing are designed in the West (and primarily the US)--key production components and technologies, such as advanced lasers, are often siloed within one or two companies in the US, the Netherlands/EU, or Japan and South Korea. While China might produce the lion's share of low end chips, they are hardly at the forefront of anything.
P.S. My time is valuable also and this is the last time I'm spoonfeeding.
FYI here's today's (5 mins):
Kerch and Russian Refueling Logistics
by Peter Zeihan on October 13, 2022
Even as Russia continues its work to assess the damage of the October 8 blast that destroyed part of the Kerch Strait Bridge, one thing is glaringly evident: we are at least weeks, if not months, away from normal operations across both the road and rail portion. Frustrating in even in the best of times, the bridge represented not only a vital lifeline and point of connection between the Crimean peninsula and Russia, but was a vital supply line for Russia's southern front in Ukraine as well.
Even if trucks can still--slowly--make the journey, trucked fuel supplies are smaller, slower, and more vulnerable than the rail routes Moscow had previously relied on. All of which sets up an interesting set of opportunities for the Ukrainians. If Kyiv ever had a window of opportunity to push hard against Russian forces in southern Ukraine, that time would be now.
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