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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 159.34+18.3%3:59 PM EST
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Sr K
To: Kirk © who wrote (14858)11/17/2022 9:35:38 AM
From: Sun Tzu1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 26433
 
One correction and couple of notes:

First what I meant to say was that my most bullish scenario is if we were to hit November lows (not October) between now and the end of the year (not January) and keep above it by end of February.

I always run two scenarios, a bullish and a bearish. The bullish case has called for a market bottom bottom between October and February. So the above statement confirms the October bottom.

The bearish scenario calls for a market bottom between April and September. That would have us getting to around the March 2020 lows, give or take (think SPX of 2500 +/- 200).

The choice of your timeframe is the most critical choice you make. It decides everything, including what tools and what signals your should use. The timeframe is not arbitrary; it should map to something real that you have mastered. For people with an industry experience who rely on FA, the timeframe should be around one business cycle, and you can get confirmations by looking at 1/2 and 2x business cycles. People who have mastered other perspectives, should adjust their timeframe accordingly.

Among other things, this means that very long or very short timeframes are not appropriate for most people. Ray Dalio has been studying timeframes that are longer than a lifetime. Stanley Druckenmiller has been looking at timeframes that about one lifetime. Both of them are calling for a decade of massive headwinds, to put it mildly.

I don't have a handle on that and I have to take their word for it. What I can do is to focus on the shorter timeframes that I can handle while staying aware of the longer trends.
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