| | | Higher rates are going to increase the debt service dramatically. I think the throttling factor for interest rates will be dislocation in the bond market necessitating monetization of debt, much like happened in the UK already. I think the Fed is really hoping to get the slowdown they are hoping for without having the SHTF first, which will expose them completely as being over a barrel. I think they might get their wish based on data I've seen of late, maybe a six month window for them to show they are justified in no further rate increases.
If the wheels don't come off, that will just be kicking the can down the road... again. That really can't happen forever, but it's obvious it can happen for a long time. Monetary inflation symptoms showed up in tech stocks, then real estate, then the broad market and RE massive rebound, and now in food, fuel, materials costs, wages. But mostly not gold nor silver. I think that changes this year and next. |
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