Since we're discussing my investment style, I am answering your Message 34176781 comment here.
You believe that you are an investor and I am a gambler because some (many?) of the companies that take position in are high beta and are more speculative in nature and that they may not be around in 5 years. But from my perspective, you are a much bigger gambler than I because implicit in your investment style is that somehow you are able to foresee years into the future and figure out which companies will be the winners and which ones will lose. That seems to me to be too arrogant of a perspective.
Despite what you think, I do pay attention to the fundamentals and the news with the company. Take FRGE as an example. It is the kind of company that you would not touch with a 10 foot pole. Their business is facilitating investments in private companies. *Everybody* knows that the IPO market has come to a halt and that nobody can get funding for private equity. And that is reflected in FRGE's price. It dropped from 47.50 to 1.26! But at that price, it was a good investment because investments should be measured on risk adjusted rewards. And at $1.26, there is relatively little risk in the company. All they have to do is to survive until the next bull market begins and the IPO market can pick up. How long will that take? Most bear markets last less than 18 months. We've already been 15 months into one.
But maybe this becomes a repeat of the dot-com or 2008. Unlikely, but nobody can tell for sure. Which is why 75% of the times I follow the trend. 20% of the times I'm staying pat to assess what is going on. And only 5% of the times I fight the trend. Almost all the big long percentage gains that I've posted happen over a 2 - 4 weeks period. Why? Because in a bear market I am quick to dump anything that bends towards going south. Sometimes that means that I lose on big profits. I bought NFLX and META damn near their 52 week lows and I sold them for peanuts :( But more often than not it has worked out, like when I took profits in NOPMF and BFLY before getting back in again when they bottomed.
Regardless, some of these holdings will survive. I cannot tell if it will be some of my biotechs or something like FRGE or SOFI. Those that do, will have a trend and chart that confirms it and therefore my time with them will naturally extend longer. Those that don't, will be left behind.
Now your turn: How is what I do more of a gambling than believing that somehow you can see years into the future? I can name a lot of blue chip companies that flirted with bankruptcy or became value traps. GM, GE, CS, and C to name a few off the top of my head...and that is not even including those that were involved with outright fraud.
Thinking that there is a difference between investing and trading is an illusion. It is all trading - just different timeframes. |
