Have you done real R&D with US based companies AND Asian based companies?
My experience is old and possibly out of date, but culturally we get things done so much faster here because we question authority and "well, that is the way we always did it before" thinking.
My understanding is Asian semi companies excel in capital equipment intensive spaces (foundry, memory) and US companies excel in design.
AMD (desing) is US. TSMC (foundry) is Asian.
In design, sure, some engineers can get some semi design software, and make a better chip. Fast and loose and free, wonderful!
I don't think anyone can move quickly with $10 billion of capital equipment purchase, which is what foundry is. Where da factory go? Customers engaged and committed YEARS in advance. Some engineer wants to modify the process? Maybe in the next gen fab 3 years from now, sure.
Running a factory is a lot different than designing a chip..
IF Gelsinger is correct....
Sure, if they succeed, they may be a good investment. It's a big if, and this is the risk I'm talking about.
How can you have any confidence Intel will beat the dominant company in the foundry industry? I can't have any confidence in that.
And why not just instead buy ADI, and own the top global company in analog semiconductors? No risk.
I'd rather buy NGL - it's a large debt laden energy infrastructure MLP. All it has to do to go up 3x or 4x from where it's share price is today is stabilize it's balance sheet. If their business grows modestly (5% - 10% per year for a few years) it will be able to refinance its debt, and pay off it's preferred obligation, and get a market standard valuation for it's business, which would put it's currently $2.50 share price between $10 and $15.
That is WAY easier to believe in (stabilizing it's balance sheet in three years) than Intel will be better at foundry than TSMC.
Sorry, Intel no good Joe. |
