HI Kirk, Northam and Breeze,
The last two days have shown retail selling with an Aydis of -7.0 and -10.0 very high numbers. The 10 Aydis is -4.6. The last spike was Sept 29 2022 and it hit -5.8. So very close there.
The 35 ema of clx has been leading in a negative way for 4 days while the 30 day PPP is still positive but the 3 day PPP has hit zero Friday.
2 cents is still a bit high in the 20's and bottom spotter has been negative and activated for 9 days. Long in time but not panicky in deep price action.
The ten day spread between CLX and PPP has been expanding in a negative fashion for 15 days and getting worse, but long in the tooth also.
Joanne watched the spread of those two as leading indicator of a reversal that Clx did not yet indicate when early.
The study of clx shows that PPP leads the reversal. If PPP goes positive in the 5 to 8 early on a bounce, you can have greater confidence in its power and duration.
That's what I'm watching for.
A few more negative days will open up some great buy the dips. As Kirk says "Cast the nets boys"!
If we get some leadership in positive PPP, buy more at the "ask" and enjoy the ride.
Breeze's chart today of the Wilshire is interesting. Look at the Macd reversal. A deeper reversal from extended negative numbers has to go back to 2008 to 2009, and to a lesser degree 2016. Both were very profitable buy the dip times to add to.
During this recent sell off, my OTC over the counter small cap Armanino foods AMNF hit new highs early last week at $3.75.
stockcharts.com
Not trying to hype this particular maker of Italian foods, but wonder if it is time for the small caps to have their day in the sun?
When markets get tired, the small caps have large percentage run ups and they can signal topping action.
With energy making inflation sticky and suggesting more increases in treasury rates, as the bond market is signaling, it isn't too far off to think the small caps will now make everyone look smart with their higher percent climbs to ATH's. It is something to keep an eye on. IMO
There may well come a time to ring the register and get some cover in 2 and 5 year treasuries as an energy spike insures the next global recession in 2024ish.
If we get an energy spike this summer, bonds may be the best place to find income for a duration of time AND capital gains once the Fed reverses it rate increases. It could well be the only game in town for a while.
Just saying we are at some critical timing events and I do not know the future, but I'm walking with my eyes open.<smile>
Thanks to all who contribute here!
Bob |
