To: carranza2 who wrote (77956)	8/19/2011 12:24:57 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 197411
It would be earlier than I thought But we could be going parabolic Right before hyperbolic, exponential, followed by asymptote towards infinity Infinity requires all then still freely traded paper monies to go to zero We may soon have global confidence panic, and After that, the true troubles emerge While we must astutely ready ourselves for the true troubles We must reserve our agility to navigate the darkest interregnum that is between true troubles and teotwawki dawn.

To: carranza2 who wrote (77970)	8/19/2011 7:47:10 AM
From: TobagoJack	of 197411
I can suggest to central banks to devalue the monies. To the politicians, renege. To the rich, hide. To the poor, revolt. To the plebs, default. To the frightened, by bonds. To the cretins, buy stocks. To the astute, gold. To the agile, silver. To the strategic, platinum. To the gamblers, buy HK real estate at usd 3k-7k psf. To the daring, buy HK real estate at usd 500 psf.

To: carranza2 who wrote (78033)	8/20/2011 5:29:58 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Read Replies (4) of 197412
i am suggesting that at some point gold is a sell and we phase-change gold into yielding and sharply devalued real estate what is that point? (i) when government bond rate yield 18%? not necessarily, for the bonds of many nations now yield 18 and higher, but i would not suggest to the fortunate residents of those nations sell gold for anything. they are in any case fortunate because their governments are nearer to recognized bankruptcy. (ii) when one oz of gold can buy several homes? not sure, for one oz of gold can certainly buy something in detroit that has closets and parking, and also can buy something in zimbabwe. (iii) when one oz of gold can pay the wage of some neighbor of the city to work 8 hrs/day x 5 days/week x 50 weeks? not sure, because a neighbor in many nations can be hired for one year at a lot less than one oz of gold. (iv) when dow:gold = 1:1? perhaps not this time, because as in the case of zimbabwe and argentina, there was no particularly good to buy a business within those domains until many businesses completely disappeared. (v) when folks are lined up around the block to buy gold? that marker is no good for folks were lined up around the block in shanghai 1948, and selling gold at that juncture was definitely a bad bad idea. i am sure selling for the average resident of carthage at one particularly fevered moment in history was also a bad idea. (vi) when gold:platinum ratio reaches 2:1? yeah, we can phase-change some gold into some more platinum at that juncture, then hope to change back into gold at 1:1 or into something else, which brings us right back to the original question, when do we sell gold in exchange for what? we have much time to answer the question; perhaps as long as 7-15 years, and maybe longer, but less time if gold goes up fast as in the past few weeks. In any case, at some point we need to off-load gold and phase-change the capital into something else. re slaughtering and such, yes, most shall fall and few may rise. let us altruistically warn others, then do what we must in response to call of duty, and pray before we prey.

To: peter michaelson who wrote (78078)	8/21/2011 5:42:52 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) of 197412
I remind all that gold is a china-play, an American-play, and also hedges against most other china/American-plays

To: carranza2 who wrote (78146)	8/22/2011 9:09:25 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 197412
The 50+ % return over 12 months by gold is inspiring given that one could make huge allocation to the gold position without fear. Now harder. Therefore ... Am thinking ... As there is / should be time

To: TobagoJack who wrote (78161)	8/22/2011 2:19:33 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (3) of 197412
I am considering taking some off the table in anticipation of a disappointment re QE3 which I don't think will happen and will probably hurt everything in its path, including gold and miners. Considering a "this too shall pass" trade when gold is presumably down for a little while before returning to its rightful place.

To: carranza2 who wrote (78203)	8/22/2011 8:30:59 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 197412
i am likely to take profit this day in the mean time, just in acting man updates: 1. Euro Area - the Pressure Remains On The short selling ban in several European stock markets has failed to bring about the intended result - instead it has created a host of problems for arbitrageurs and hedgers. Meanwhile, euroland politicians continue to fail to reassure anyone, with wishful thinking and irrelevant blather alternating. A slight exception is provided by Mrs. Merkel who correctly analyzes the problem euro-bonds and other concessions would create. CDS markets and euro basis swaps remain on the edge. Charts updated. acting-man.com 2. US Stock Market & Gold In spite of last week's decline, some of the divergences we have pointed out previously have remained in place. Unfortunately the decline in stocks came a bit too fast to qualify as a genuine retest, but trading volume on the most recent sell-off has decreased and the t-note looks ripe for a pullback. Gold meanwhile continues with its blow-off like move in spite of being quite overbought. We take a closer look at silver's behavior earlier this year, comparing the time periods when overbought readings appeared with the subsequent short term peaks. Interestingly, silver's post crash consolidation is now diverging markedly from that seen after the 1980 high, which indicates that the bull market has some life left in it. The major currencies dollar and euro have put everyone to sleep lately - this is bound to change. Dull markets often give birth to big moves. acting-man.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (78234)	8/22/2011 9:03:38 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (3) of 197412
with gold at these lofty heights, an increase in margin requirements is probably a given.

To: carranza2 who wrote (78236)	8/22/2011 9:29:13 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) of 197412
on second thought, shall likely do hedge against gold fall this pm as opposed to take gold profit this am we best watch chavez gold xfer, libya gold disposition, and german decision re gold and d mark and euro and such in the mean time, re chinese and jews :0) - just in ... Sent: Tuesday, 23 August 2011 10:37 AM Subject: FW: The Business Deal The Business deal A Chinese guy goes to a Jew to buy black bras, size 38. The Jew, known for his skills as a businessman, says that black bras are rare and that he is finding it very difficult to buy them from his suppliers. Therefore he has to charge $50.00 for them. The Chinese guy buys 25 bras. He returns a few days later and this time orders fifty. The Jew tells him that they have become even harder to get and charges him $60.00 each. The Chinese guy returns a month later and buys the Jew’s remaining stock of 50, and this time for $75.00 each. The Jew is somewhat puzzled by the large demand for black size 38 bras and asks the Chinese guy, "...please tell me - What do you do with all these black bras?" The Chinese guy answers: "I cut them in half and sell them as skull caps to you Jews for $200.00 each." Business is business

To: TobagoJack who wrote (78238)	8/22/2011 9:37:31 PM
From: carranza2	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 197412
pondering, pondering, pondering..... thinking cap on vbg as a general matter, about half of the time i try to do something like take profits, time the market, etc., it ends poorly. convinced the golden bull is alive, just as i was convinced in 08 and held tight, mostly, so i am sticking to my guns, i think. mind you, it's time for a consolidation, correction. there are a huge number of variables this time around.....Europe, qe3, bac, dow, etc. cannot possibly get them all right.

To: carranza2 who wrote (78239)	8/22/2011 9:59:27 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation of 197412
paper profit is a burden realized profit is a responsibility Martin Armstrong: The US Treasurys are headed to record lows while gold is going up above $1800 coming close to this week’s projected resistance at 1860-1900 followed by 2050-60, which moves up to 1910-1960 followed by 2085-2105 for next week. These are NORMAL projections and still not a PHASE TRANSITION type of move just yet. Those projections stand at 2400-2600 level this month and become possible should gold rise above 2100. Support in gold is now beginning to form at 1730 and holding that on a daily closing basis will keep gold in a bullish position. A closing above 1818 today (which was achieved), will warn that gold can still press higher into tomorrow. A closing tomorrow for the week above 1900 would signal an explosive run next week. Gold and US Treasurys trading together illustrate the point that the BIG money has not begun to move and is still parking. Corporations are at record highs with over $2 trillion in cash holdings also parking in Treasurys fearful of investing with the future so uncertain. Those who try to predict the future with fundamentals get their head handed to them without exception because they become fixated largely on a couple of issues that are more often than not too domestic. Lacking worldly experience, they become just deer in headlights. A closing tomorrow on the Dow BELOW 10906 will warn that next week we may again drop sharply. Even a closing BELOW 11280 will keep the Dow in a weak position (which was achieved today). There is support down to 10320. However, a monthly closing BELOW that level will then point to a retest of the of the 2009 low with support picking up again at the 6952 level. Those who keep praying for a 90% decline as it was in 1929-1932, fail to realize HOW that took place and WHY. It is NOT the private sector that is the problem – it is the public sector. Some stocks are paying great dividends that you cannot obtain in bonds, or any that you might think of buying. So it is just not as plain and simple as some portray buying gold and nothing else. The time is not ready for a stock market recovery just yet. That is certainly true of the economy as well. We have the collapse of SOCIALISM and that means that unemployment will rise, but largely from the collapse in government employment at all echelons right down to the local municipal level. The longer politicians refuse to reform, the worse this will get.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (78238)	8/22/2011 11:58:22 PM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 197412
TJ, this stupid gold thing is quite annoying. I now find myself sucked into it too: < on second thought, shall likely do hedge against gold fall this pm as opposed to take gold profit this am we best watch chavez gold xfer, libya gold disposition, and german decision re gold and d mark and euro and such > Because I can't understand all that gold jargon and because the abstruse mumbo jumbo technical analysis with loads of fancy graphs in Kitco.com is beyond me, I decided not to buy it and become one of those gold bugs but to sell it instead. So I am now a buyer of gold [to repay the GLD shares my broker borrowed for me to sell at $184.50 to desperate gold buyers - there were plenty of buyers apparently]. In most businesses, one buys stock and then sells it to people who want it at a later date. But since I don't have a gold vault or anything, it seemed more sensible to sell it to them now, get the money in my bank, then buy it later when I can find some at a good price. $184 is about a tenth of an ounce of gold. I wonder how many ounces of gold GLD has per share. It must be about 10 shares for each ounce of gold in the vaults. This gold thingy is certainly fun. Mqurice

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (78248)	8/23/2011 2:16:08 AM
From: TobagoJack	2 Recommendations Read Replies (4) of 197412
hello hm, today's report: i sinned, again, failing the test, for i am weak, missing balls even as my sell-finger still not amputated (i) sold leveraged portion of paper gold, for leverage makes my skittish, @ 1,896/oz ( bought last week Message 27577179 ) (ii) off-loaded 1/5 of paper silver @ 43.42/oz ( bought here Message 27491321 and here Message 27476241 (iii) off loaded 1/5 of paper platinum @ 1,988/oz; the lot was bought here Message 27548734 as an addition to earlier buys here Message 27491321 and here Message 27476241 enough is enough, and besides, one cannot buy cheap unless one can sell dear. cheers, tj

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (78322)	8/23/2011 3:07:43 PM
From: 2MAR$	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 197412
Gold down $81 from peak here @ $1836 just off lows @ $1831 ....just took the cover on AGQ at that "$228" from $254 , (yow!) All things come to he who waits <bg Just went long off that same pivot a little lower @ $227's ( mentioned july 25 top high lower support ) and scalped 2pts too off tha pivot , now with an eye to reshort They shook the trees...one yahoo posted this : I 'M ALL IN 400% MARGIN AT 252,,, WHAT SHOULD I DO NOW ??? PLEASE HELP... PM's can be pretty vicious trades , lol,.

To: 2MAR$ who wrote (78323)	8/23/2011 6:48:16 PM
From: TobagoJack	of 197412
take the money it was a gift and give thanks then, let us pray before we again prey amen

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (78275)	8/24/2011 1:04:09 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation of 197412
Hello hm, this am report, (i) off-loaded all paper silver except about that amount accounting for the profit to date since successive buy-in during July and august. Sold at 42.24 level that which were bought in at aggregate average of 38.4x level. (ii) basically substituted the winning exposure to paper silver with a "I do not care up or down" exposure to silver shares Message 27587904 And leaving the profit on paper silver trade on the table to feel participative. (iii) did not exercise to buy back the portions of gold n platinum which were sold yesterday. Afternoon is still young, n there is always tonight. Nice feature about the metals, no management, no sg&a costs, no cost over runs, and no jurisdiction, just simple macro around the clock and around and around the planet. Cheers, tj

To: TobagoJack who wrote (78338)	8/24/2011 2:20:07 AM
From: 2MAR$	of 197412
Caranza's voiced thoughts were telling & also your own into mon and that seemed to mirror what i was thinking too as well as many saavy traders everywhere . Isn't it when somebody says his Barber is buying that its time to sell & wait for reentry ? ;o) The Chavez news was perfectly added sauce to the mix to add to that last rise making $1900 an easy mark but since the bulk of the trade was anticipation new round of Bond buying , but think we all had better appreciation that the Fed isn't going to make such an overt statement which would prolly start WWIII with pundits , politicians , talking heads, tea baggers & mother China all at the same time...they'll do Qe3 more artfully . (there were also concerns you mentioned of possible new margins to) Here's fluff piece with all the crayon color, a basic buy the rumor sell the news , lighten up etc finance.yahoo.com They say life ultimately desires to be Art , and Art ultimately wants to be Music in its heart ...the weekly chart has a regularity to the periods of the rise & rythm with the pullbacks....it was that definitely raised my hunting tiger instincts to test short GLD on monday $182 but really was hunting Ag as it wasn't matching Au's rise tp 1900 & it stuck at still @ $44 . (And always look at new 'century' marks after parabolic rise as strong psychological points for the proftaking .) We had two tests essentially there at $1900 while there's the easy~to~see long strings of of regular pullbacks to the 20ma on weekly but with this last rise, the fear bent the fabric of space & warped the chart , though the length of the period was about right for timing the sell-off. It is a game & like going to the opera ...but some hear the libretto & know the score better than others , you nailed it ! Thanks to you, Caranza & some people's barbers helped me to nail it too. Wither hence? Thats the next game's move , surely not back to the 20ma this time but was sure many a larger player would love to rebuy ower again. Too soon , too much to tell...alot got priced in with this move for now. Held 1831 today trading 1843 now a dip to under 1800 hurts nothing on the chart trend .

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (78275)	8/24/2011 4:31:02 AM
From: TobagoJack	of 197412
hello hm, afternoon report: sold silver down to 2% of high watermark and way below the 10+% profit astutely machinated and agilely executed retained the residual position for old times sake psychologically makes re-entry less jarring, as and when like ex-... well, let us not go there profit was enough until next time now, relived of distraction, can focus on gold n platinum, looking to buy, unless to sell we will know when we know players, ready to play on 3, 2, ... cheers, tj