Investor Movement Index® (IMXSM): September 2023
Monthly summary
Investment exposure in TD Ameritrade client accounts decreased by 1.05% during the five-week period ending September 29, 2023, to 5.64. This ranks “moderately low” compared to historical averages.
TD Ameritrade clients were net buyers of equities in the September IMX period. Exposure was reduced primarily within the Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Information Technology sectors. Clients increased exposure to stocks in Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Health Care.
Bond yields rose to their highest levels in nearly two decades during the September IMX period, and this acted as a significant headwind to U.S. equity markets. Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, signaled that interest rates would remain unchanged in September, but that a pause in hikes did not indicate an imminent reversal of Fed policy. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6%, bringing the trailing 12-month increase to 3.7%. Most of the increase was related to rising costs of fuel and shelter. Indexes related to food and other categories ticked higher by an average of 0.2%, while travel lodging and used vehicle prices decreased. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in August. Jobs data from the two preceding months were revised downward. Broadly, equity markets were lower for much of the September IMX period.
During the September IMX period, the S&P 500 (SPX) decreased by 2.67% while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 12%, closing at 17.52. Traders and investors likely found the yields in fixed income products attractive enough to rotate out of some equity holdings. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.573% and the U.S. Dollar Index rose to 105.815. Crude Oil Futures rose sharply, closing the period at $90.79 per barrel.
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