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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing
PICK 52.34+1.6%Dec 26 4:00 PM EST
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sixty2nds
To: sixty2nds who wrote (7629)10/9/2023 5:06:48 PM
From: Sun Tzu1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 10713
 
Thanks for posting that.

Trading the market is like scuba diving in deep reefs or trekking across savannas. You don't know what is hidden, but if you pay attention to little clues, you are likely to become aware of the dangers.

In this case, as I outlined when we first talked about QRTEP, when the A shares make a new low is a signal that the market believes the company is going to go bankrupt.

The way to win in the market is to always start with what is priced in. Then you consider what needs to happen in order for what is priced in to come true. For example, you may project the interest rates and the amount of short term and long term debt and its duration. From there you can asses how much interest payments the market believes is due in each year and what the new term structure will look like when the debt rolls over. Finally, you add in your own projections and probabilities. For example if you believe the rates will not be as high as the market believes or that the term structure will change, then you can make a move.

There is certainly a ton of money to be made in bankruptcy situation. One just needs to make sure he is on the right side of the story.
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