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Technology Stocks : AMD, ARMH, INTC, NVDA
AMD 255.96+2.3%Nov 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Kelvin C.P. Wang who wrote (52992)1/24/2024 8:14:06 PM
From: VattilaRead Replies (1) of 72138
 
Thanks, Kelvin. I guess it is time to update my scenarios — it appears my last update was back in May 2021!

Pie-in-the-sky is merely my Optimistic scenario now. For pie, we'll now have to surpass $640B in market capitalisation!

Note also that I have removed the doom-and-gloom scenario, as AMD failing and withering away is by now so unrealistic as not to warrant an explicit scenario.

AMD longterm prospects (3 years) CAGR Revenue GM EPS Market cap. SP Likelihood
Pessimistic: Underdog, meek or no growth, precarious future <10% <$26B <50% <$4 <$160B <$100 20%
Stable: Respected competitor in growing markets 10–30% $26B–44B 50–55% $4–7 $160B–320B $100–200 25%
Optimistic: Matches competitors, high margins and solid growth 30–50% $44B–67B 55–60% $7–9 $320B–640B $200–400 30%
Pie-in-the-sky: Overtakes competitors, leading innovation and markets >50% >$67B >60% >$9 >$640B >$400 25%







EPS and market capitalisation numbers are based on 1.6B shares outstanding.
On 2024-01-24, market capitalisation stood at $288B for AMD, compared to $1516B for Nvidia and $207B for Intel.

Sources:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/key-statistics
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/key-statistics
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/key-statistics
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMD/amd/revenue
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/revenue
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/INTC/intel/revenue

Comparison charts:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-comparison?s=revenue&axis=single&comp=INTC:AMD:NVDA
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-comparison?s=gross-margin&axis=single&comp=INTC:AMD:NVDA
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-comparison?s=eps-earnings-per-share-diluted&axis=single&comp=INTC:AMD:NVDA
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