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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 185.83+5.8%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST
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robert b furman
To: Kirk © who wrote (17909)2/5/2024 11:48:20 AM
From: Sun Tzu1 Recommendation  Read Replies (3) of 26800
 
It is often hard for me to predict what others are thinking because what seems often obvious to me is usually not the consensus. I am right more often than I am wrong, but the market moves based on what the majority does. So I've been working on market signals to remedy this gap between my perspective and the market's.

Yes, financial news is worthless. If you are going to trade/invest based on the news, learn what matters to the market and then follow the business news and the macro, not the financial news. You'll have to build your own models.

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I am going to tell you something that will not sit well with the conservatives, and with fiscally conservative people like myself. But the evidence is what it is, and it is hard to dispute it.

Sending checks to people was a damn good idea and should be repeated more often. If you had told anyone that the Fed is going to hike rate to 23 year high and keep the yield curve inverted for 310 days (the longest duration on record) and yet the economy will keep booming, they would have sent you to a mental institution or laughed you off the stage.

But it happened because that cash cushion allowed the people (and in turn the businesses) to ride out the bumps.

Powell actually said the same thing, though nobody wanted to believe him. In his pressers he frequently said that the balance sheets are strong and the mortgage payments are low and personal bank accounts are fine. So he can keep hiking. And everyone thought the man was nuts and we're headed for a deep recession.
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