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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace
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To: skinowski who wrote (40170)4/9/2024 5:27:43 PM
From: Perspective  Read Replies (2) of 41469
 
I also brought up Japan. Back in 1999, I was looking to the Japanese experience as a template for 2000-2010. However, that was a poor analogy. I had no idea how much bigger our bubble could get if interest rates did actually go close to zero. Stocks, bonds, real estate, even commodities - the everything bubble.

Well, the more I look back at the past few decades, the more I think 2000-2010 wasn't the real wipeout. It was both shallower and shorter than either the 1920s or the 1970s experiences:



Getting the real wipeout required having rates almost to zero paired with an inflationary shock.
Now that we have those, I think the stage is set for something much more like the Japanese experience of the past 35 years.
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