I don't think politics has anything to do with it. The issue with TSLA is the following:
#1 Early adopter and the easy picking is done. Now TSLA has to appeal to the more pragmatic buyer, i.e. slower growth
#2 Subsidies on TSLA are cut. This has to come out of this ASP
#3 TSLA needs to rollout cheaper cars, which it is having problems doing (this goes back to #1)
#4 TSLA faces huge competition from BYD and other Chinese EV makers, not just in China, but around the world
#5 FSD is not ready. The cult of TSLA keeps harping about how great it is, but until TSLA assumes legal responsibility for accidents involving FSD, there is no point in buying it. IF/when TSLA does that, it will be a big deal. Elon says in August, I say he has cried wolf too often.
As for 120ish, that is what my algo tells me it is headed for. When we get there, or along the way, the algo may change its mind. But I suspect that longer term, until TSLA releases FSD, 80s will be a more realistic target. The worst case scenario would be in the 40s, reflecting total failure of FSD and inability to compete with BYD during a recession. |
