Let's revisit NVDA and SMCI.
Firstly, I hope that you are doing well and that you did not suffer much today. If you had stop losses in place, they should have kicked in well before today. If you didn't, I think that NVDA is due for a bounce or at worst will close the gap from February 1st before bouncing.
Nothing has changed my mind since we last spoke. NVDA is still a great company and I am pretty certain they will beat their numbers again this quarter. And I also still think that they will see their multi-year high within 18 months, if it has not already peaked.
It's no secret that I've been heavily shorting NVDA over the last few weeks. What changed? It fell off my guardrails and my money flow indicators gave a bearish signal (see the chart below).
I shorted where you see that vertical bar which was two days after the bearish signal in my bottom indicators, but imo was the safer entry b/c NVDA has a lot of BTFD crowd. Even so, it tried my patience b/c until today it did not fall as fast and as hard as any other stock in this situation would have. And despite the algo's recommendation to the contrary, I did not cover any short positions but did add 5 tranches as it fell. The latest got triggered this morning soon after the open. My shorting vehicle was NVD (-2x ETF).
As to SMCI, it has the dubious honor of being the worst performer in my watchlist. The market sees to agree with me on it being far riskier than NVDA. Nonetheless I never touched it b/c as I said, it is not my kind of stock to be long or short. Though in hindsight, I should have bought some 0DTE puts. But SMCI just wasn't on my mind.
Again, if you are holding NVDA, chances are good that you will be able to recover all or most of your losses this quarter.
Below are my NVDA chart with the guardrails, and two SMCI charts: one with the guardrails, and the other with fib retracements pegged to when it became very popular.
Have a great weekend.
NVDA
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SMCI
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