Hi Ski,
It is the perfect setup for a Bull run on oil.
Many countries in Europe had elections this week. Net rersult is the green movement has been decimated.
The costs of their unintended consequences have been rebuked by the voters who are seeing the inflationary forces that have resulted from their false scams /errant views.
We will follow that path in November.
Politicians followed the route of lobbyists with big money, and it has been their demise.
Add to that, the ESG themes that have been huge losers, and both angles of big money have come to agree with the little folks, "That it is an expensive scam, that has cost a lot of money AND YIELDED NO RESULTS!.
ESG and Climate change have been big Wall Street "Themes" and they have resulted in a lot of sovereign fiscal spending which has resulted in inflation and no results. The winners have been China and India who have ignored the climate agreements because they were "emerging markets".
I believe, when it is all done and over,it will be a United Nations scam/theme to benefit the poor countries into becoming the world's manufacturing centers and the wealth and employment that comes with it. Globalized wealth redistribution.
In between the OECD's have had a rude awakening of relying on these third world nations for their supply chains and poor medical capabilities and the developed world has silently reversed to onshoring and a more diverse supply chain with backups and no complete reliance on a single source for the things we need in daily life - Not to mention at a time of war!
The corollary of that need for greater security is more cost, and inflationary pressures are stickier, because we're bring in manufacturing via onshoring and/or near shoring and that has an more permanent increased cost.
Bottom line the "Green New Deal 2.0 has shown to be the original "Green New Deal" and the dogs are no longer eating the dog food. It is simply too expensive!
As Jeffrey Curie says, "It is the revenge of the old industry". Industry that has been starved of Capex investment, and we're going to pay the price with a higher inflation and for longer.
Once again an energy spike will create a global recession.
As has happened in the past, the trigger will be the OECD countries reducing rates too early. The following growth will test production capacities, and we'll have a commodity super cycle that will bleed us all.
Note to file, Mr WEF Prime minister Trudeau has tipped the scales already with the Bank of Canada dropping rates by a quarter point last week.
We're due a heck of a distribution top, compete with euphoria.
We elders will see it coming and scale into it.
I suspect the next crisis will be a doozy and I'm without a clue on what to hedge it with, besides being very liquid in cash.
Buying depressed hard assets will take a lot of long term nerve and cash collateralized puts will be very long term lucrative when buying Dividend Aristocrats.
Best vision I have of the future.
That and $6.00 will buy you a small latte. <smile>
Bob |
