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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts
COHR 160.58+19.3%2:35 PM EST
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To: SGJ who wrote (19808)8/12/2024 9:12:25 AM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (2) of 26429
 
Can you explain that? I'm not sure I understand but it is a good topic to discuss.
Real growth in the index over the past three years, factoring in inflation, is 34% which translates into a 4000 $SOX. (from 3000 in 8/21). Oversold and not so over valued.
What have profits done for the index over that period? (Since Aug 2021?)

I'm still trying to see if with the new model where my tool makers sell services, so they've become subscription-like with a large base of recurring revenue that grows with each tool sold, has lifted their multiple and put a floor in valuation.

Pg 10 of my newsletter shows monthly semi sales back to May 2004 and they are about the same since May 2021. What the chart doesn't show is profitability of the revenue...

What is clear that if you bought and held SOX over that period, then you have a nice gain but

if you bought SOXL and held as some on SI recommend (and I've warned against), then you have a large loss.
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