Kirk, here’s an EW analysis of COHR and why it failed to meet the projection I posted in the last EW update.
As I mentioned I make a projection for a wave three of the same degree once the wave two of the same degree has completed. I’ve also mentioned that I recalibrate that projection using a bottom-up EW analysis as the sub-waves of such wave threes unfold.
With that in mind let’s look at the Wave Count of COHR.
After Minor Wave 2 had completed in Oct 2023, I projected that Minor Wave 3 would project a target of 83.03. That was a rough-cut target as I would then start using its sub-waves to refine that target. Its sub-waves would be labeled as Minute Wave (circle) i, ii, iii, iv and v all those roman numerals in circles.
So once Minute Wave (circle) ii was complete at 48.48 in April 2024, I projected that Minute Wave (circle) iii would have a target of 112.21. It was then that I anticipated that Minor Wave 3 would exceed it target of 83.03. By how much I did not know.
I then started to project the sub-waves of Minute Wave (circle) iii that I would label as Waves (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) and (v) to refine its target. Note that once Wave (ii) was completed at 52.14 in Aug 2024, I projected Wave (iii) at 102.95. Note that target was exceeded. After Wave (iv) was complete at 92.40 in Dec 2024, I project Wave (v) at 129.12 and that would have ended Minute Wave (circle) iii at 129.12. That did not happen. Why? As I’ve written a wave five of the same degree can truncated. And that happened. Which meant that Minute Wave (circle) iii ended at 109.05. Follow the blue path to that price even though the high was at 113.60. So, in the paragraph 3 above I projected Minute Wave (iii) at 112.21 was achieved.
I’m not invested in this stock, so I don’t review it every day. That truncation capped my target. What happened thereafter? After Minute Wave (iii) was complete I’d have expected a 38.2% retracement as a target for Minute Wave (iv). Instead, it retraced 59%. So far it has not declined below the top of Minute Wave (circle) i at 67.94 else this wave count would get invalidated.
I will project a target for Minute Wave (circle) v later today but will also refine that target by projecting the sub-waves of Minute Wave (circle) v that I’ll label as Waves (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) and (v) as they unfold. And its final price will also end Minor Wave 3. See paragraph 4.
If I made a typo let me know.
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