| | | The SPX is in Monthly Bear territory right now. But at the beginning of the month it confirmed the continuation of the Bull Cycle for another month. For a Monthly Bear Cycle to get confirmed, the SPX will need to open below the monthly UTL (currently at 5806.11) on 4/1/25 (April fools day), and remain below the UTL until the close on 5/1/25.
At this point that is a slim chance of happening. The 60 min, Daily & Weekly Bull Cycle projections are all well above the Monthly UTL.
A new Weekly Bull Cycle is currently projected for 3/28/14, unless the Weekly Bear Cycle (W-E-1) is confirmed.
If the W-E-1 (Extreme Overdue) is confirmed at the close on 4/4/25, then the Weekly Bear Cycle could be extended another 11 Weeks, which then a Monthly Bear Cycle (M-S-1) could get confirmed at the close on 5/1/25.
However, right now the obstacle in the way of getting the W-E-1 confirmed, is the Weekly MACD (12.26.9) is currently 85 points above the zero line. So the Weekly MACD will have to drop below the zero line by the close on 4/4/25. The MACD has dropped 30 pts from last week, so it will need to continue at about that rate, which means for the W-E-1 to get confirmed the SPX will likely have to drop below 5400, the W-E-1 projected low is 4783, the low will be due 5/2/25.
Right now it's looking good for the W-1 (Overdue) to get confirmed at the close of next week. At that point the Daily will have confirmed a D-SC-1 (Extreme Overdue) and will be way oversold. It's a long way up to the Daily UTL for a new Daily Bull Cycle to get confirmed. However, each day the Daily UTL price drops.
So we see what happens. |
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