But while the impact of lockdown policies is still being studied, new research paints a troubling picture of the immense collateral damage inflicted by them.

The measures increased poverty and wealth disparities, spurred a dramatic rise in adolescent anxiety and depression, contributed to a surge in fatal drug overdoses, and led to devastating learning losses in schoolchildren, who have yet to recover, according to scientific studies. As of last spring, the average American student remained half a grade behind pre-pandemic levels in both math and reading, according to a recent report card on pandemic learning loss.

What’s more, months of unrelenting seclusion caused many people to sever social connections, with lasting consequences to mental and physical health. Both volunteering at nonprofits and church attendance, two measures of social engagement, declined and have not recovered to pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, the nation’s surgeon general warned of an " epidemic of loneliness and isolation" — brought on, in part, by lockdown measures that isolated people.

And that’s not counting the other costs in lost livelihoods, shuttered businesses, and the anguish of seeing relatives die alone without being able to say goodbye.

“The lockdowns were never really effective, and the confusion around them sowed a great deal of public distrust in government,” said Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota.

On average, states with Democratic governors had stay-at-home orders that were nearly three times longer than those in red states. Yet many so-called blue states — including California, New York, and New Mexico — had among the highest COVID-19 death rates, measured as a share of their population. And some red states, including Idaho and Utah, had among the lowest, national health data shows, according to an analysis by Macedo and a Princeton colleague, Frances Lee.