| | | SOX .... is the index to watch here jmo. It has an organized chart, awa has some very interesting and uniform time relationships going on right now.
The primary possibility for the bulls is that the 2020 April low was a wave IV. At that point an extended wave 5 started, with the sox presently being in wave 4 of 5, and getting close to completion. I.e. it is three drives to the top, from that 2020 April low, with one more up wave to go to complete the sequence. Where is three drives? The start of this full wave sequence of course goes back to the 2009 bottom.
Timewise:
Wave 1 of 5 up lasted a near exact 21 months, bottom to top.
Wave 2 of 5 down lasted a near exact 9 months, top to bottom.
Wave 3 of 5 up lasted a near exact 21 months, bottom to top.
Wave 4 of 5 down is still in process, IF it lasts 9 months the bottom is due just after 1st of April. Wave wise more or less looks like a iii down is about complete, and iv and v are yet due. A wave v low need not be a new low, could be a near double bottom. Yet we are close enuff to that very early April low to bottom here now, these things do not always hit timewise day exact.
It is a bit unusual to see this amount of uniformity in the time domain, but it is there to observe, and does happen.
4100 on the Sox has to hold here, or the bear becomes the most likely primary trend, due to overlap issues. No evidence of an overlapping ED here.
Other trivia:
Wave 3 of 5 was a 1.38 fib extension of wave 1 of 5.
Using the time relationships in process, and assuming 4100 holds, and wave 5 of 5 up starts, projected wave 5 high will occur just after the beginning of 2027. This then will be 27 years after the 2000 top, which occurred in early March of 2000. That is 3 X 9 yr Hurst cycles, top to top.
I have been focused on a 2027 top possibility for some time.
If the wave 5 possibility comes to fruition, and the top hits the upper TL in process, the top will be around 8000.
Let us say the Sox does bottom at 4150, and a wave 5 proceeds. Fib top possibilities for wave 5 based on wave 3 are:
1.0 fib extension: 7992 top
1.38 fib extension: 9451 top
1.5 fib extension: 9913 top
1.61 fib extension: 10335 top
Not also that wave 3 of 5 was longer than wave 1 of 5, therefore wave 5 could be the longest wave. More normal in a blow off than not.
Gonna be close and touch and go. The 50 % retrace of wave 3 per labeling used is just below the wave 1 top. Otoh wave v's of any sequence often get retraced, that has essentially already happened.
We can also observe that previous wave i ups in this sequence took 6 to 9 months to complete. In each case they either retraced the previous down move to a new ATH or came very close. So if we start up here without overlap we probably have til end of year for a new ATH. Gonna take some time.
Tweets
 |
|
