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Non-Tech : Kirk's Market Thoughts

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10:35 AM EST

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (24105)	4/21/2025 6:36:40 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) of 26476

Yield curve and recessions are both so manipulated it is pretty much meaningless these days. How can you trust any graph when they don't tell you what two rates they are comparing? Some comparisons inverted MANY times w/o recessions. Consider Biden throwing nearly $200B at those most likely to keep buying SBUX coffees, fast food and all sorts of crap for their expensive data plans... who were also young and would vote for him if he forgave their debt. It was burning the deck chairs on the Titanic to keep the engines stoked. Eventually you hit land or sink. AI might have been the saving grace to "hit land" but Trump stuck a fork in that with his tariff crap. If I parse his words, it sounds like he's saying "wink wink" these are negotiations, but the jackass also said these were not negotiating tactics. He is correct in that you need to let the other side know you can take a punch, but you damned well better make sure it doesn't land and knock you out. Worse yet, Trump told the rest of the world to NEVER trust any damned thing he or anyone else in US government says, even if we call it the "greatest deal ever" to replace NAFTA. Trump talks about forcing Powell out to get someone in who will lower rates and the 10-year soared today... He needs a handler that has a clue. BTW, high rates are GREAT for those of us in the 60:40 or 50:50 age who've basically given the government free taxation for years with the artificially low rates. Hillary talked about how to go after IRAs and tax them at 2% to fund her health care plan way back in 1993 I believe just after Bill won in a landslide. I've pondered why the lefties let that get away... then figured out they did it with fake low fed fund rates which of course blew up asset prices and made income inequality far worse, but at least those of us with stocks and expensive real estate in desirable locations did great... hence why so many on the blue coasts love her and those like her. Getting 0.01% on my cash savings and not much more in Treasury bonds for years was a tax on the fixed income side of IRAs.

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