Hi Bob
I hope you are enjoying record highs with the rest of us! How do these targets fit with your eWave understanding?
Sam posted some good charts at:
Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board - Msg: 35181446
My favorite part:
The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 6,173.07), Nasdaq Composite (IXIC – 20,273.46), and Vanguard Total World Stock Index (VT – 128.00) all pushed to fresh all-time highs. The latter had already pulled back and retested its breakout level successfully, which is a healthy sign of strength moving forward. It’s hard to ignore the resilience of global equities here, rallying in the face of geopolitical risk, political uncertainty at home, and generally cautious positioning — particularly among institutional investors. We’re now in clear blue-sky territory, and when that’s the case, price tends to climb the wall of worry.
Considering where this move may ultimately extend, I prefer to keep it simple and anchor to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Using the defined move from the February high to the April low, this projects an SPX upside objective near 6,958. And while the third year of a bull market is historically more choppy than the first two years, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe we could reach that 6,958 milestone before year-end, barring a major negative macro catalyst that disrupts the trend. A re-escalation in the Middle East, renewed tariff pressures, another round of sticky inflation, or a left-field catalyst could always change the equation. But you can’t trade on “maybes” — you follow price.
Strategists, meanwhile, might need to play catch-up. Many were forced to downgrade targets following the initial White House tariff announcement, but the rollback has thrown them offside. Goldman Sachs still has a 5,700 year-end target, even though it raised its 3-month view to 5,900 — which the market blew through. Barclays trimmed to 5,900, Oppenheimer cut from 7,100 to 5,950, RBC went down to 5,500, and UBS dropped to 5,800. The rollback has left them flat-footed, and unless this breakout fails soon, the only move left for them is to chase. If the trend holds, we’re likely to see a wave of upward target revisions heading this summer.
That said, if this breakout fails, a move back below 6,147 is where I’d start to get cautious — at least in the short term — as it would likely open the door for a retest of the 20 or 30-day moving average. And as we know, failed moves often lead to fast moves, and a breakdown below that level could serve as an early warning sign of a potential deeper move lower. |
