| | | Hi Kirk,
This market is going where I had hoped to see it go. GULP
Breeze's fantastic calls on the 5th wave of circle III are close to extending into a 6100 to 6500 (from northam and farther out in time.)
There is a possible double top at 49,000 on the Dow, but on a lower wave count.
They are cycling in different waves, BUT both getting high.
I'm still waiting for the small caps to get frisky. This REALLY BUILDS THAT EUPHORIC MARKET THAT SIGNALS EXUBERANCE TO ME.
Over my years I've seen small caps get nice percent run ups and then the volume goes away and it rolls over.
This Israel/Iran 12 day war was what I had hoped for. I've added some smaller E&P Permian drillers in 2024.
All new stocks and I added some tracking shares that were high after crude hit the upper 50's and 60's. this spring
I have trimmed all of those high cost shares with no losses and some marginal gains.
Maybe raised 1% more cash.
With pocket change I have bot to close all July and September puts except some that were stink bids and very cheap. I'd love the few left to get assigned. Small positions and, expecting to let them expire.
By September I'll be out of all puts sold naked and by year end I'll have a build of cash (sitting in a Schwab money fund ) - generating 4.3%. Assuming no new adds to shares of stock from now till year end.
I'll be :
62% in common shares
10 % in preferred shares - which cover our taxes insurance and utilities. I'll hold them in a recession as rates will drive up the prices to par, and if called at par I'll enjoy a windfall.
29% cash now and 30% cash by year end.
Literally all equities will be long term holds by January 2026.
So I do not want to cash in my gains and incur a 24% tax minimum on gains.
I also don't want to see my account draw down - but can mentally handle it.
My dividends received (if they do not get suspended or reduced) are yielding 9.87% based on cost basis.
With my equity dividend income and preferred common dividends income (all qualified ), I'll never risk a forced sale.
With the dividend revenue stream I CAN BUY MORE SHARES for less money and accelerate the build of my qualified dividend income out into the future.
The key is to hope the recovery time period is not as long as the DOT, COM collapse, or the Great Financial Crisis was. I might not outlive the recovery.
I think I'm resolved on that.
Navigating a plan in the midst of huge market decline and its associated fear ,CAN AND IS HARD TO FOCUS ON.
The possible scenarios do not provide a hedge or guarantee.
In short, we're close to a long wave circle iii top that can extend and/or truncate. It could roll over or become a runaway market, in which I will scale out of an additional 30% max position (my trading funds for the future).
Then look for an ABC which usually morphs into a bigger A. Play the B up with a very sparse amount, and then enjoy a long C, in which I will sell puts at very low prices and await the rebuilding of capital. That is a safe and fun time to build put premium and compound it with substantial dividend revenue streams. The safest and most fun part of a safe market.
JMHO
Bob |
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