| | | How to use my screenshots
Almost all the screenshots I present are from my portfolio, so I own them. I post them to highlight what is moving in the market that I have a position in and you can do your own research to see if that makes sense to you. When a position is highlighted yellow, it means that I traded it on that day. This is just how Fidelity does it. Generally speaking, you have a 50% chance to find a better entry than mine. I never spend time figuring out the exact entry point on the day. I just don't have the time for it. In my opinion, if you are right, a little up or down should not matter.
I have ~200 positions. This is necessary because the stocks that I go after I usually riskier than average. Some are downright speculative and have no place in a "respectable" portfolio. I don't particularly care whether or not a stock is "respectable" because the median drawdown of all stocks is ~85%. So name your stock, even respectable ones, and you will find huge swings that will churn your stomach. Diversification is a way out of this.
By and large, the market is efficient (within a range) and the fair price of the stock is what you see. I don't agree that markets are super efficient and that the fluctuations are due to continuous flow of information. But nor do I believe that the markets are dumb and your are likely to find gems if you keep looking. What I believe is something in the middle. The market is efficient within uncertainty bands, and trading/momentum carries you within those bands, which can be relatively large and certainly add up.
Importantly, I do care about the fundamentals. The order of priority is macro -> sector/meme -> stock. You unless it is a very short term trade, I never ever buy a company that is financially too weak to survive for less than a year without additional funding. And ideally, I want a company that has been around for more than one recession.
Unless I feel very strongly about a stock (which is very very rare), my starting position is small. As the stock establishes a trend and follows my rail guards and imagined script, I will add or remove from it. Most positions are either closed on short windows (because I aim to buy near support and resistance level), or last about 6 - 9 months.
Also, I rarely if ever, allocate more than 5% of portfolio to any single stock or ETF. When that happens, it is almost always because the stock rose a lot and became a much larger position than I would normally keep. However, unlike some people, I don't trim a position that has grown. I simply let the profits run and I will attach stoploss to it that will trigger a reentry.
The basic rule is to buy near the green lines on strength and sell near red lines on weakness.
Since someone asked me about QSI, below I show a little demo.
I have manually placed green markers where QSI was a buy in my system and red marker when it became a sell. The stock has had 30+% swings, so if you bought at green and sold at the red you made a lot of money, despite its seemingly meager existence.
Right now QSI is on the edge. If it bounces, I will add to it. If it goes above the upper guardrail, I will double my position. And if it falls, even a little, I am out.
PS The bull/bear markers on my stochastic are just TA divergences. Sometimes they work and other times they don't. They are the least important part of my chart.
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As another example, below is the chart of MNMD.
I've made this a half day chart so that we can zoom into the daily action.
I recently closed my position where the first gray marker is placed, and reopened it today for almost exactly the same price as I had closed it (where the 2nd marker is). I lost a couple of pennies, but I got myself good insurance against potential big drops.
See if you can understand the logic of the exit and the reentry.
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