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Strategies & Market Trends : The Art of Investing
PICK 45.35+0.2%Nov 7 4:00 PM EST
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maitri
sixty2nds
tntpal
To: sixty2nds who wrote (10209)9/27/2025 4:20:56 PM
From: Sun Tzu3 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 10550
 
To add another example, FCX. They are one of (the?) largest copper producers in the world.
As I am sure you are aware, electrification and copper being the "new oil" and all that has been all the talk for years.
In 2014 FCX was $36. in 2016 it hit a low of $3.52, a drop of more than 90%!
Then about 18 months later it went to $20, for about 5.5x gain but still much less than the $36 top.
Then it began a downtrend and went to $4.84 by March of 2020, or an 80+% drop!
Then it went to 52 by the end of 2020 for a 10x gain.
It has since been in a range of mid 20s to 50 for drops of 50% and gains of 100%.

I would say that the reason there are so few rich people in commodities is not so much that market participants trade the position, but rather that commodities are don't generally go anywhere and are meant to be trading commodities rather than investments.

Additionally, they are very volatile and you are typically competing with the producers who have much deeper knowledge of the market than others could hope to have.

Just about the only sure fire way I have found to make money in commodities (as an outsider) has been to average down when the price of the commodity is below its production and wait until the inventories are exhausted.

This is a lot harder than it sounds as anyone who bought and waited for silver to take off can attest to. But if you look, every few years you will some commodity that meets the criteria.
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