| | | If I had bought ANRO in August, I'd have missed 100% gains from its low in April.
If I had bought it in September, I would have missed ~50% gains from August.
If I had bought it in early October, I missed 100% gains from September.
If I buy it today, I have missed 100% gains from early October.
On the other hand,
If I had bought ANRO in August, after it had already doubled, I'd been sitting on 400% gains.
If I had bought it in September, I'd be sitting on 250% gains.
If I had bought it in Early October (which I did), I'd be sitting on 100+% gains today.
I wasn't smart enough or lucky enough to buy ANRO at the bottom or even in August. I bought it in October 7 - 15. But 100% gains in two weeks is not bad.
The point here is that how far a stock has come from its bottom doesn't tell me whether or not it is a buy. I could argue that on a risk adjusted basis ANRO was a better buy in October than in May. Back then it was still highly speculative. By October we knew their dug has real legs because FDA put them on fast track.
I don't usually average down and I cut my losses fast, but nor do I let a missed opportunity that I did not know about cloud my outlook. There is no such thing as a stock that is too expensive to buy or too cheap to sell. There is only calculated risk/reward.
ZBIO was another stock that I missed on. I even had a fair chunk and I sold it all because volatility increased without it going anywhere. Which meant the risks were increasing but the rewards were not.
This morning I bought my shares back. The stock was higher than when I sold it. But out of the 39% move it made today, I captured 34% of it. Not a bad position to be in. Not as good as if I had bought the dip. But it's the next best thing.
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