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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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From: OldAIMGuy	2/8/2026 12:57:18 PM
	of 18932

I liked this quote from an article by Cullen Roche. It seems to speak to me as I watch the daily tickers: "More important, beating the market is literally not a good financial goal, because typically when people are chasing returns, they’re really chasing risk." An upward move of three points in one week is unusual. This week the MRI comes in at 40% suggested cash for diversified portfolios. This is well into the Caution zone and we take note. The MRI Oscillator, which shows risk direction and pressure, shows +9 this week - strong upward risk pressure. Two components are in their own caution territory while the other two are neutral. Our v-Wave Risk Indicator remains unchanged this week at 34% suggested cash reserve for diversified accounts. Based in a completely different set of data, part of Value Line's 'black box' of Appreciation Potential, it isn't suggesting a second mortgage on the house would be a good idea for fresh investing cash. The flattening out of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite indexes shows there's more going on here than is easily explained. The Dow 30 Index, which has lagged the other two, moved to new high ground last week, even as the other two indexes appear stalled. In the Market Risk Indicator (MRI) it was the Divergence Index component that was the driving force of the rapid jump upward in risk. It appears the market participants don't have a consensus on whether the market's next move will be upward or downward. A very large number of new 52 week highs and lows simultaneously is usually a short term bearish signal. If nothing else, it suggests a more turbulent environment than we've had since last year's tariff dip. I don't think it will hurt to keep some extra powder dry. Best wishes, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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