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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash

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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (2267)	3/1/1998 12:25:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) of 5676

Arik: notice the dollar chart has an ascending triangle, similar to recent S&P and Transport chart with narrowing Bobby Beara bands -g-, ready to break out. digisys.net Another interesting indicator is something Bill uses the VIX. Message 3562869 Check out Claude's chart VIX chart. Message 3559829 Maybe this time it is signalling a correction up, instead of down. His RUT chart indicates that the small caps have just begun to fight. If the dollar breaks out like it looks to, I don't think there will be any correction phases to the peak - only consolidation phases. bwdik (the consolidation phase over the last week in the Dow may have been wave 2 and Wave 3's are known for kabooms) I did a time study on the 29' consolidation period, did not have exact dates on the 29' period but a fairly accurate chart. Taking the 97 consolidation period that began on August 6th and completed on January 13th (159 days) and comparing it to the similar consolidation period on 1929 that began about February 7th and ended about May 29th (about 111 days) So our 4th wave consolidation period lasted 1.4 times longer that 1929. The period for the final 5th wave blowoff in 29 was 3.1 months, using a multiplier of 1.4 would put our 5th wave blowoff at 4.5 months which would put us at about May 28th, plus or minus a week. Using the GZ pitchfork center line matches up the Sept 1929 peak perfectly with the midline of the Feb-May consolidation period and the early December 1928 correction. The pitchfork line for the same period on 1997-8 reaches 9700 area at the end of May. One thing that may throw this time analysis thing off though is trading days, they traded on Saturdays in 29. Here is Dave Plonk's wave & time analysis calling for mid-July and 10,330 Message 3201196 the pitchfork crosses 10240 in mid July. Silver HO:http://www.digisys.net/futures/chart/fstwin40.gif Silver bounced hard last week off the bottom band and if breaks across the middle band and 6.64 we could be looking at another nice move up. Silver broke out 5 months prior to 87 sell-off. Silver demand / supply ratio way upside down and Buffett takes final delivery on March 6th. I'm liking KO for some fizz also -g-, the whole world knows the real thing (see dollar chart -g-). bwdik

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