Hi Stocky,
You have asked a variety of questions.
1) The legal filing is a Complaint filed in the US District Court for the State of Arizona, with Simula and Simula Auto Safety Devices as Plaintiff, versus Autoliv (and all of its relevant subs).
Simula's acting attorneys are:
John H Cotton (602) 423-2034, and
Robert W Shely (602) 230-9310
You might try getting a copy of the complaint from one of their offices. I have received my own copy from an attorney with an interest in the outcome of the case.
2) It is too early to tell what the exact order flow will be assuming a contractual relationship with Delphi. What I can tell you, however, is that in personal conversations I had with Mr. Townsend (Simula's President) over a very lengthy period, I was informed that Simula would not sign any agreement with a first tier supplier unless there was at least one *firm* order coincident with the signing.
3) A fourth quarter loss of $ .10 - $ .15 per share is more than I am looking for, but can not be ruled out because of the "percentage of completion" accounting used by Simula in its government products business.
From what I can gather, substantial improvement has already taken place in 16G seating, and ITS continues to be profitable based on existing run rates.
16G will probably operate at approximately breakeven in the current quarter, but it will become very profitable as soon as the San Diego plants are consolidated. Although that has been delayed somewhat due to El Nino (no, *REALLY*!!!) because the large amounts of rain have delayed completion of the new plant's roof, the impact on second quarter expectations will only be marginal. I expect that by late May or early June, 16G will be operating smoothly and very profitably.
It is too difficult to assess the action of the stock relative to these two short term developments, and is somewhat dependent on the timing, wording, and order of the two releases. Nevertheless, the fourth quarter number is clearly less important than the signing on of Delphi and any additional ITS orders that will arise.
All of this should be patently clear some time within the next two to three weeks, as the Delphi news is likely within the next week or so, and the earnings results should follow that within an additional two week period.
For what it is worth, my own "guess" for the fourth quarter is a loss of five to ten cents. In the event that I am "low" with this judgement, I hope that the company writes off *everything* that is in doubt, including several of their kitchen sinks.
Have a good day. |
