So many people look at stocks and base their investment potential based on current and/or next years earnings. These people shoud go and buy ford, or 3M or some dow stock. You need a longer time horizon for new businesses especially in a totally new paradigm. One way to value a company like onsale is based on revenue growth and a multiple of stock price times sales. Onsale, compared to other internet companies, is on the low end of the valuation range. Some would say, a good investment opportunity for the risk taking investor. Every newbie to this thread starts off with "why does this stock have a pe of 2 million" or whatever. PEs MEAN NOTHING for companies like this.
THE most important factor for Onsale, amazon, or any other online retailer boils down to what is the life-time value of their customer. Look any any of their p/ls. They are spending a fortune on marketing, often causing them to loose money. But if they spend $1 today to buy a customer who over the next 2 years will spend $10, then they are going to eventually make money. This is the name of the game in traditional retailing, and it is the same in electronic retailing. The difference is that there are few established brand names and therefore, loyalties to a business, on the internet. Its all new.
So if you want earnings go buy sears, if you want growth, buy a stock like onsl. And if you go for onsale, watch it like a hawk. When its early in the game, fortunes can be won or lost in a moment.
Mo |
