Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector

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To: Nevin S. who wrote (1356)	3/18/1998 3:53:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) of 2542

NevinS., The absolute lowest estimate for FY98 for HDCO is $2.85/share. The mean is $3.90/share, with a mean estimate of $4.90/sahre for FY99. Sansone, JBIL Chief noted this morning on CNBC that the outsourcing trend will continue at a 30-35% pace revenue-wise he believes across the sector moving forward. Hadco "rumbles along" at an estimated growth rate of revenues/eps 20% annually. I figure knock it down a notch because of Asia's impacts upon its customers, and then bring it back up a notch with its two recent acquisitions- a wash on the growth rate short-term I believe. Finally HDCO serve a number of large telecommunications customers such as Lucent- it does not sell exclusively to boxmakers... I shorted HDCO last fall @$70/share- I am buying HDCO now @ $37/share- just five months later....HDCO lost 50% of its share value in five months. Now do you believe that drop to be warranted because of Asia? Sincerely, Doug F.

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