Marty and charger,
NKE comes out with dissapointing earnings and the market is up. Internet stocks are out of site.
What's fueling this? I agree with charger its greed. I disagree with Marty about the rules. I've been actively looking for a reason behind this, and feel charger is on the right track.
1. Mutual funds + inflows from IRA's + Inflows from overseas + positive momentum + psychology = growth in market.
Therefore, when inflows cease, etc. cease, so does growth, hence correction. Now the operative question is when?
I'm speculating (I've already shared this with Jay) its between April 1 (Due to capital requirements from Tokyo banks + quarterly coverage from mutual funds) and April 16 (end of IRA inflows).
There could be a lag of 1 to two weeks due to other factors, but April should be the month.
What does this mean for CHKPF?
I don't share earnings numbers anymore, they are too valuable, but suffice it to say, they will beat concensus. But earnings will report just after my anticipated mkt correction, so, it should bode well. If the psychology shifts nothing will support the stock. I know one thing, it won't go above $45, too much going on the market segment to allow this. The only exception to this would be a takeover, which, while a possibility, probably won't happen (Here I am purely guessing).
Finally, this means that there still is a trading opportunity between now and end of April. I'm just not sure where it is and am open to any suggestions (the only caveat is that they actually have to be making money). |
