As you all know, ADPT belongs to Computer Peripherals sector in Tech ( I know, I'm about to say the obvious here for a lot of you! Just bear with me). With that in mind let's examine some facts here.
Computer Peripherals Sector in Tech Industry :
Earnings - 4th Quarter
-45.9% decrease for the entire industry coming down from $790.4 mils to $427.3 mils vs. our friend ADPT going from $43.2 mils to $52.3 , Up in sales but down %17 in EPS
Comments:
1) So everybody did bad (due to ?) not just ADPT. One can easily argue that ADPT management was not deceiving anybody. The entire sector went down!
2) The growth was there but because of dilution EPS went down. So ADPT did far better than its sector.!
Analyst Earnings Estimates for Q4 ( This is funny!!)
( Of course ,no kind but Wall street kind)
27% match
46% above estimate
26% below estimate
Comments: The law of probability tells us there is a greater chance
1) that the result of ADPT for Q4 is even higher that anticipated
2) Morgan Stanley is 50% at error.
Last 3 month growth (in terms of cap)
20% for entire sector.
Comments:
1) If the rest is making money so can ADPT
2) ADPT must be 20% X 20$= 4$ plus 20$ as base price, gives us around 24$. So ADPT is already at its sub-bottom level and is under valued. An other words, it is already a great BUY.
Mark's observation regarding movement of the fund to other sectors :
Software sector is about 22% up, from 300$ -> 400$ Billion caps for the last 3 months.
Commnets:
1) Indicative of fund movement
2) Directly related to ADPT's sector, money wise
3) Software always needs Bandwitdh but not oil
4) ...
Things to remember about me:
a) Please pardon my English.
b) These comments or opinions are not direct at any body here.
c) Facts and logic's, that's all I'm after.
d) Source of info for the above is at
stocksmartpro.com
You can get in by taking free test drive for 15 days..
Mark:
You started on this thread very well with opposing angles, facts and logic. The last Several posts do not reflect your core competency ( facts + rationale). Posting someone else's post even as a semi-fact is like Chinese whisper and it only bugs down the BANDWIDTH of the thread. In addition, it is not contributing positively to our objective which is making a better investment decisions. Get a lawyer ( BTW we have one on this thread. Yes you , Speak up!) and have him analyze it for us!!
( Referring to Law Suite post, I read it too!!)
ALL:
I have to admit this (ADPT) is one of the best thread on SI. Mark is right about that most people on SI are just engaged in single-dimension discussion with no constructive opposing views. We have one of the best group here!. For that alone, we should all pitch in and buy Mark some ADPT shares, now before it is too late and keep him happy and around!
One predication, first week of April is the make or break week for ADPT!!
All the best, Camron
|
