PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year Message Board

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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year

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Oct 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (269)	3/22/1998 6:51:00 AM
From: Mr Logic	Read Replies (2) of 4509

Paul, <<shorting this stock based on the possibility that it might miss its numbers by a couple of cents is really playing with fire.<< Missing the numbers in the next 3 quarters would be a bonus. The stock price could easily drift downwards if the company just delivers to expectations. What is fundamentally different now, with a $50 stock price, compared to a few months ago when the price was $30? At what point is the future potential of the company fully reflected in the price?? Look at it another way; if you had all the financial information for PSFT, a knowledge of the marketplace, competitors etc.. and had to determine a reasonable stock price with no knowledge of the actual price, what price could you justify for the stock, based on future free cash flows? Personally anything over $20 seems too high and I would feel more comfortable in the $10-$15 range. In a flattening market, could easily be less than $10. These numbers may seem ridiculous but it is not rocket science to work backwards from a given scenario. Regarding constraint of trained consultants, this can be a problem but partnerships with the big consulting houses is one way it is addressed. Inability to implement will not stop the sales person selling the solution in most cases!

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