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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year
PSFT 0.00010000.0%Oct 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: Mr Logic who wrote (271)3/23/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Rick  Read Replies (2) of 4509
 
Patrick -

You're missing some key drivers to sales of packaged software systems:

Large and medium sized companies have experienced unbelieveable nightmares in their attempts to craft their own internal systems. Massive amounts of cash have been spent on these efforts, and many of the efforts cancelled or delivered doubtful benefits (never close to the business case justifications). Furthermore, even when they were able to craft a quality solution, the fact that it was proprietary meant large training costs for new employees and problems when the people with knowledge left the company.

Now, with the new paradigm, companies rely on trained consultants that are familiar with the systems to install and trained operators to recruit into the organization. The market is currently tight for the trained personnel to install and run, but it is a much more economical alternative to having the MIS dept. craft a solution.

This trend is here to stay. It does not require Y2K or EMU conversion. Peoplesoft is at the center of the opportunity - SAP is too thick too take advantage of the middle market and the smaller players are too thin (Platinum, State or the Art, etc.).

No disrespect, Patrick, but I think you're nuts to short this stock. Peoplesoft locks its customers in for years and Wall Street will pay up for predictability. Remember, the premium that PSFT is getting isn't so much for the level of earnings expected in the next couple of years, but for the confidence that the business is well positioned and the earnings will come.

Rick.
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