The analyst numbers I've seen for '98 are $.45 on $130mm. Have yet to see $.60-.70 and those numbers seem quite high. Where can I track them down?
My thought is that they have $40mm in the bag in ongoing government products business. Add $24mm for ITS, $36MM for 16g and we are at $100mm. So that leaves us with $30mm total contribution from CABS, IBAHRS, Parachutes, 2nd ITS customer, rail and mass transit seating, and possibly BABS. Can they do it. Seems likely if these "new" revenue sources do modestly well in '98.
Also, one has to wonder how strong Mercedes commitment to the curtain will be if a few more new companies use the ITS and the curtain is still not available. Their old excuse was that they didn't want to look like they were using BMW technology, but rather than being a BMW wannabe, Mercedes may just have to go with the flow.
p.s.: I guessed a loss of $.10-$.15 for the quarter, and with the land sale removed (and figuring the tax impact of the land sale) we were at ($.15). Still, it seems as if the number was not an issue. The future looks bright, and the company seems well aware that the bottom line in 1998 is the bottom line!
Your Friend,
Kreskin |
