Adaptec (ADPT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT)

ADPT 14.52

-1.3%

Nov 11 3:59 PM EST

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To: Starowl who wrote (1423)	3/27/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: The Philosopher	Read Replies (3) of 5944

Latest First Call Estimate report updated through 3/26/98 shows consensus earnings estimates for FY 98 for $1.73 and FY 99 $1.77. Given actual 97 of $1.72, this indicates basically a zero growth earnings estimate. At $20-1/8 price when report was issued, this gave an implied P/E of 11.6 on 1998 earnings and 11.4 on 1999 earnings. Not a happy forecast in terms of looking for major price movement! The range of broker estimates is even more depressing. For FY 99, the range is $1.27 to $2.03. Thus, even at the highest estimate we have a two year growth of only 18%, or under 10% annualized. This is not consistent with a high growth company. The low estimate of $1.27 means at least one analyst is essentially saying get out of this stock at any price, its earnings will decline 26% over the next 2 years. This is not a happy estimate even for the mid-term investors among us. I have a call in to IR, but so far not returned (but to fair, I only placed it 5 minutes ago.) Will advise when/if I hear back.

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