Hello Denise! AFS is an excellent buy-hold candidate. It is also an excellent candidate for short term trading. The choice is yours. There is no doubt that ATF will be a rollercoaster for a while, but I can't see it fizzling down to $.72 and staying there. (jmho)
Gasoline/ng systems have been available for more than a decade worldwide. The newcomer to the scene is the perfected diesel/ng system.
AFS and Clean Air Partners are among the leaders in the world in this tech; remember that the Eagle is the only system approved by the Japan MOT and also compliant with the 2004 legislation in the US (as per post #507).
It was Westport that originally got tagged as the 'baby Ballard'. Unfortunately, AFS got caught up in the cyclone. Unlike Ballard and Westport, Alternative Fuel Systems is generating revenue today, with a more reasonable stock price, not struggling to support a market cap based on earnings 5-15 years from now.
The $2 mil contract in Mexico should be fulfilled by late Sept 98, at which point the monies will be paid in full to AFS, so cash reserves will increase. The letter of intent will then be acted upon in some capacity. Another financing in the meantime is possible as it costs lots of bucks to sell anything worldwide.
re: "the mathematics of the letter of intent seem a little optimistic"
Remember also that Hydro Quebec and Gaz de France are the other half of the AFS 'tag team'. They are putting up the bucks for the refueling stations. Selling the energy is their end of the deal, and they will want lots of ng vehicles around, about 10,000/year(give or take <g>). Providing the initial $2 mil contract is fulfilled to each party's satisfaction, the next phase is fully anticipated by the Mexicans.
We have all heard it so many times it seems to be wearing off. The worldwide market for cleaning up vehicle emissions is massive! If anything the letter of intent is conservative in numbers. It would appear that we have been numbed by 'green' products that came and went. AFS is not a cheap marketing ploy attempting to capitalize on the green revolution. Laws are being passed to reduce emissions worldwide.
There is lots of competition in the world, but I believe there is no other co that is responding to the demand with half the success and market penetration of AFS in the diesel retrofit market.
For a small Canadian co on a shoestring budget, ATF has managed to poise itself to pounce on the problem of toxic vehicle emissions in every respect. They have the technology from tank to engine to tailpipe.
I think the stock is a steal at present values. Smiling and riding out the bumps,
regards, tj |
