Don, sorry to butt in but, just picked up 'Gorilla Game' over the weekend. I too have used this method somewhat informally, noting that the 1st to the new, big technology, is often the winner, and can force others to a smaller market share (eg see - ORCL ve INFX, SYBS).
Even if you've already bought into this way of looking at the market, this book has many interesting insights to the methodology, IMHO, and gives me more confidence in my own approach. BTW, in their analysis, you needn't be in the stock too soon. You can wait until the gorilla player is completely obvious and still get most of the profit that is ultimately going to be available.
I see PSFT as an emerging gorilla. In house programming is too expensive, it is only gonna get worse, and it is THE KEY to on going productivity increases. They also have 'name' recognition, at least among developers. Most of the experienced database people I know want to get into PSFT or SAP. They're gonna be able to find the workers they need to pull this off.
Especially pleased that the authors point out that at the APPLICATION level, there is more room, ie more than one gorilla can prosper, and recommend the majority of a gorilla portfolio to be in applications.
I think they are wrong about AMAT (it IS a true gorilla - but that's for another thread) and I2 (too specialized - SAP and PSFT will push them to the wall). But, SAP and PSFT can probably co-exist for a long time, and maybe J.D. Edwards, too.
Best regards,
TK |
