A legal victory, yes. Vindication? - not even close.
Polls say Clinton is inferior to his predecessors:
April 1, 1998
Nixon, Clinton and the Polls
By EVERETT CARLL LADD
For the first time since Watergate, there is serious discussion about the
possibility of dismissing an incumbent president, whether by forced
resignation or impeachment. It's hard to imagine two men more different in
personality and political style than Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton, and the
scandals that have embroiled their presidencies diverge in many ways. We
know, of course, the end result of the Nixon scandals; in Mr. Clinton's, the
jury--American opinion--is still out.
Nonetheless, whatever Mr. Clinton's critics say about the decline of public
standards, there are striking similarities between public opinion about
today's presidential scandals and the last generation's:
Disdain for the "game" of politics.. In April 1973, as the pot
began to boil in both grand jury and Senate inquiries, just 31% of
respondents who had heard of Watergate (83% of the total)
described it as "a very serious matter," while 53% called it "just
politics." As the investigations proceeded, these numbers shifted, but
only gradually. As late as two months before Nixon's Aug. 9, 1974,
resignation, 49% called Watergate a very serious matter, 42% "just
politics."
Similarly, during Watergate as today, much of the public expressed irritation
that the scandal was drawing attention from more important matters. In June
1973 the Harris Poll asked whether "the president was right in saying it is
more important for him to spend his time working for the country than to be
trying to find out what happened in the Watergate affair." Fifty-two percent
agreed; 36% disagreed. In the same poll, respondents agreed, 54% to
34%, that "it is best to give [Nixon] the benefit of the doubt in the
Watergate bugging and coverup."
Suspicion of the press. Even in late June 1974, 51% of the Gallup
Poll's respondents said the media "have provided too much
coverage" of Watergate, vs. 29% who were satisfied with the amount
of coverage and 15% who wanted more. The public rejected the
view that the press was out to get Nixon, but pluralities consistently
saw him as a victim of unfair media attacks.
Reluctance to pass judgment. The most striking finding from polling
on Watergate is how slowly and reluctantly many Americans came to
accept the idea of ousting the president. In response to questions on
whether Nixon should resign or should be forced out through
impeachment, substantial majorities said throughout 1973 that he
should not. Support for Nixon's removal from office grew as the
hearings proceeded in 1974--but even then tentatively. In early May
1974, three months before his resignation, 49% of respondents told
Gallup interviewers that the president's actions were not serious
enough "to warrant his being impeached and removed from the
presidency." Sympathy for Nixon persisted even as his presidency
drew to a close. In a Harris poll completed July 21, 1974, 55%
agreed that Nixon "is trying to do his best in an almost impossible
job."
Public Irritation
But support for Nixon's forced exodus jumped whenever "ifs" were added
about firm evidence of illegal action--if he had participated in the Watergate
coverup, or if he refused to hand over subpoenaed documents and tapes.
Claims of executive privilege found little support: In an April 1974 Harris
survey, only 30% said Nixon was right to assert executive privilege in
refusing to turn over tapes; 56% thought "he is using it as an excuse to keep
important information from Congress which might convict him."
Partisanship. Republicans were much more likely to stand by
Nixon. In a Gallup poll of July 1973, 34% of Democrats but just 7%
of Republicans favored his removal through impeachment. Six
months later, the proportion of Democrats favoring Nixon's removal
had climbed to 48%, vs. just 11% of Republicans. In early August
1974, 71% of Democrats wanted Nixon out, while a majority of
Republicans (59%) stood by their man and opposed his removal.
Partisanship plays a similar role today, with Democrats far more
inclined than Republicans to defend Mr. Clinton, criticize his critics
and oppose his removal from office.
But what about Mr. Clinton's sky-high approval ratings? That is the one big
difference between 1973-74 and 1998. Nixon's approval ratings were high
in 1972 when he won re-election in a landslide, and they remained high in
early 1973. But then they began going south. In December 1973, according
to Gallup, just 29% of Americans approved of the way he was doing his
job, a figure that remained fairly stable for the rest of his term. By contrast,
Mr. Clinton's approval scores have risen significantly in his second term and
now stand at their highest level for his time in office.
Does this mean the Clinton scandals are unimportant? No. Job-approval
ratings have little to do with scandal. Recall that in 1973 and 1974,
Americans saw their country in a terrible mess; now we're generally upbeat
and, with regard to the economy, almost exuberant. Nixon's standing would
probably have been greatly diminished even if Watergate never happened.
It's easy to forget how perilous the economy seemed in 1973-74. In 1971
and 1972, inflation was a relatively modest 3.4%. But it ballooned to 8.8%
in 1973, the year of the Arab oil embargo, and to 12.2% in 1974. In
August 1974, when Nixon resigned, 80% of respondents to a Gallup poll
identified economic matters as the most important problem facing the
country, and 70% referred specifically to the high cost of living. The oil
embargo brought not just inflation, but gas lines and a deep recession.
No wonder the nation's mood was sour. A Yankelovich, Skelly & White
poll in March 1974 found 71% of respondents saying things were going
badly. In September, 65% said in another Yankelovich poll that the U.S.
was "in deep and serious trouble." At the same time, the Roper
Organization recorded 75% believing that things had seriously gotten off on
the wrong track. Nixon's job-approval rating followed these measures.
In 1973-74, then, Nixon held perhaps the weakest hand of any modern
American president. Today Mr. Clinton holds the strongest--and even his
predecessors are benefiting. In a survey taken by Gallup in early February,
74% said that, looking back, they approved of the way George Bush
handled the presidency. Sixty-nine percent said the same of Ronald Reagan,
and 65% of Jimmy Carter.
Job-approval ratings, then, reflect a public assessment of the president's
performance and the general mood. But other measures better reflect the
extent to which scandal has diminished a president's public standing. And
here things do not look good for Mr. Clinton. An ABC News survey
completed Feb. 18 recorded 66% saying that he does not have "high
personal moral and ethical standards," vs. just 28% who said he does. A
Yankelovich Partners poll of mid-January found only 37% calling Mr.
Clinton "a leader you can trust." In a Princeton Survey Research Associates
study completed in early February, 69% approved of Mr. Clinton's policies,
but only 42% said they liked him personally. Asked by Opinion Dynamics
in December whether they would rather have their child grow up to be like
Bill Gates or Bill Clinton, 47% picked the Microsoft CEO, and just 24%
preferred the president. (Twenty percent found both options unappealing.)
Man of Integrity?
A number of polls over the past several years have asked respondents to
compare Mr. Clinton's performance with that of his predecessors. He
usually trails everyone except Mr. Carter in leadership and everyone save
Nixon in honesty and integrity. But even in the latter comparison, Mr.
Clinton's position is not secure. A Harris survey of early May 1973 found
64% agreeing with the statement that "President Nixon is a man of high
integrity," while 23% disagreed. As Watergate unfolded, Nixon's reputation
for probity fell, but as late as May 1974, 40% of respondents called Nixon
a man of integrity.
In a survey completed July 21, 1974, just over two weeks before he was
forced to resign, 35% still saw Richard Nixon as a man of high integrity--a
greater proportion than so credits Bill Clinton today.
Mr. Ladd is a professor of political science and president of the Roper
Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Connecticut.
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