you'll remember, I forecasted TLC would use Bear Sterns,
(and other analysts)to hype the stock to $24-25 under this momentum, then issue a more shares, naturally today's the top.
as for q1 numbers, don't be so stupid. TLC always 'makes its estimates' by channel stuffing, aggressive write offs, etc
your questions s/b:
1)how much cash does TLC have ?
2)what are dso's ?
3)what are the allowances & returns?
4)what's asp's & margins ?
5)what will be the cost to upgrade the titles?
6)will grolier or ADAM let TLC continue the distribution,
as for other risks, just read what the risks listed by PiperJaffrey, Alex Brown et al. are.
as for being short, not during this hyped momentum, but will be by summer when events start to reveal themselves. |
