Christopher/Mark/all: It is very possible we've hit the bottom at around 20. But for me that isn't terribly important, as I am looking long term and for substantial improvement.
Earnings estimates really can't be more than wags right now. Even in normal times we cannot anticipate with certainty the many positive and negative factors that will affect a stock's price. With Adaptec increasing its work force about 65 percent and its potential revenues about the same, the variables have increased well beyond even the most sagacious analyst's ability to project earnings next year. And I'm not sure (and doubt that) any of the earnings projections yet incorporate the Symbios merger.
For what they're worth, Zacks shows 7 estimates for FY99 (ending 3/99). The mean is $1.88 with high $2.73 and low $1.27. For the current quarter it shows a mean of $0.38, high $0.61 and low $0.26. For next quarter, mean $0.39, high $0.63 and low $0.24. For analyst recommendations it has 1 strong buy, 3 moderate buy, 3 hold, and 1 (Zacks) strong sell. The wide ranges indicate the uncertainty.
You talked to IR, Christopher. We've heard a couple other company forecast for the quarter that suggest earnings will be at the low end of the estimates. Perhaps we'll avoid a warning and if there's no word next week, I suppose we're not going to get one. Who knows?
The next firm data point is 30 April, when we'll get the full Monty, likely including some information on the Symbios merger. That report will finally provide some direction.
Starowl
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