Hello thread. Haven't posted anything for a while. But I have been enjoying everyone's good opinions here. Here is something from my TA readings. Whether agrees or not, please give opinions.
Long term technical: If you draw a trend line from the recent low to the low right after its IPO, it shows a solid long-term up-trend. In fact that all the breaks below the trend-line were less than 20% which is very solid for a start-up company with high volatility. The slope of this trend-line is slightly steeper than its 200-day regression line, which shows the moderate momentum on the stock. Looking at two-day chart with MACD 16-26-9, the MACD turns positive since last May and stayed there for most of the time. We had a break to the downside this Jan but quickly back to positive on 2/20/98 and the moving average followed immediately afterwards. In the recent sell-off on 3/10, the MACD hit negative just briefly and the moving average didn't follow and now both are positive. Based on this pattern, I think CHKPF is heading for a moderate up-trend and once the MACD turns steep positive, the stock is on the fly.
Near-term technical: If you plot the trend-line by connecting yesterday's low and Jan 30's low, the slop matches perfectly with the 50 day regression line. In fact that the slop is much higher than the long-term regression line which shows strong recovery pattern. Looking at 1-day stochastic 13-5-7, the recent sell-off did not bring the stochastic all the way down, but price consolidation at the support level will bring it down. I was a little surprised by today's action as I was looking for more consolidation at the 39-40 level. Recovering too quickly may not be the best interest for the long run. And I think most people here are also looking forward to buying more at 37s or something. CHKPF does not have a historic support at 40, but I think there always has to be a first time for a new stock.
Future Projections: CHKPF will start moving steadily higher towards its all time high of 51 after the current consolidation. After the earnings, if CHKPF beats the estimate by 4 cents or less, we'll still be in a range of 40-50 in the next 3 months and move higher based on market condition. If they can beat 5 cents or more with more visibility, I think we'll see 55 for the near term and have a good chance of hitting 70+ (40 times 99E of 1.8) sometime later this year as momentum drives the stock to a temporary over-bought situation. My year-end target for CHKPF is still at around 60 (40 times 98E of 1.5).
Hope nobody get bored by my long post. My TA analysis contains a lot of self-exploring opinions with some references. Two of the stocks that I own show this kind of strong pattern, CHKPF and PMCS, which is part of the reason why they become 80% of my money. After all, everything here is just on paper. We do need a good pray to be smiling.
Danny
PS: I use TC2000 for TA analysis. |
