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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT)
ADPT 18.25+15.8%3:59 PM EST

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To: jgercke who wrote (1652)4/14/1998 5:15:00 PM
From: slob  Read Replies (2) of 5944
 
ADPT's PEG valuation!

I think that PEG is a very good indicator for growth companies but fails when the market shifts away from the product. I'm very interested in finding accurate valuation methods for fundamentally sound companies with decreasing revenue / earnings. All help is welcome.

As for ADPT's valuation,I would suggest that you study S3 back in late 96 early 97. S3 was king of the Graphics controllers, however, it was clear that the market was shifting to 3D graphics. Look now at S3 and you'll find a company that is struggling to find its direction. IMHO ADPT is at a similar crossroads. It seems to me that the high end products will end up going to 1394 and who needs SCSI for low end. Where does this leave ADTP? If the PC makers move away from ADPT's products than all the PSR, PER & PEG calculations in the world don't count for a hill of beans.

Slob
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