Doc Stone Pick: THQI--BLITZKRIEG!! with segue to SIEGE.
Today's Price Action
If anybody ever tells you that the market is rational, point to today's price action in THQI. THQI posts incredible blowout numbers, higher than even the most aggressive estimates. Not only that, they are up SEQUENTIALLY, making more money in the weakest quarter of the year (Q1) than the best traditional quarter of the year (Q4) in a highly seasonal business.
How does the market reward this? Gap up to 34, followed by crash to 26. The reason? Press relase states that 88% of revenues for Q1 due to sales of WCW titles. THQI will lose its WCW license in June **of 1999**, 14 months from now. Price also collapsed after shorts did some covering.
Valuation and Company "Story"
THQI is trading at an incredibly deep discount to its growth rate. This stock should ear **at least** $2.50 this year, with a posibility of three bucks. Right now, based on $2.50, THQI is just taidng at 11 times forward earnings. It makes little sense, but you have to take advantasge of these moments of insanity.
THQI has the strongest and deepest lineup of games in the video industry. This includes Bass Fishing for the PC, 2 new WCW titles in the Fall, Rugrats for PLaystation and Gameboy (to conincide with release of movie), the much anticipated Quest 64 (the **first** role playing game for console), and Granstream Saga. They are also in tight with Disney, and have alot of Disney titles for Gameboy coming out (like Life of a Bug).
THQI has the tightest inventory controls in the industry, and the best balance sheet management. They don't manipualte bottom line data by tinkering with their reserves. They reserve to the hilt, and STILL put out great numbers.
THQI just bought GameFx, a graphics technology company that offers exciting new graphics acceleration, plus the deal gives THQI two game development teams.
Investment Idea
I am loading up on THQI right now. It is sure to pop back into the 30's, where I will sell half (this is the Blitzkrieg part). I will then hold a core position through 12/31/98. This could be a $60 stocks based on fundamentals and earnings momentum (The Siege part).
Buy below 29...
DocStone |
