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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT)
ADPT 14.09-0.4%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: The Philosopher who wrote (1935)5/1/1998 5:09:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe  Read Replies (4) of 5944
 
>> Isn't anybody going to say anything negative so I can be assured

I LOVE IT!!! On lots of threads, if you want to consider the
downside you are anathema.

I love rummaging around in the FUD ... makes me feel comfortable
to know that I've considered everything that might go wrong.

Here's my downside ...

- ADPT drifts down toward 17
- stays between 17-22 for weeks
- gradually drifts up toward end of year
- future reports are only slightly better
- ADPT screws up bigtime in some technology/business area
- blows fibrechannel with bad design
- has severe SYMBIOS integration pains
- SYMBIOS fab ends up useless for future ... big charge
- ADPT disappears totally from retail and loses all channel edges
- SCSI cards already disappearing from retail
- ADPT brand disappears from shelves
- ADPT loses brand recognition to someone else
- Microsoft and IBM announce support for FooChannel I/O subsystem
- i.e., some semi-random technology event happens

Even if things get bad, I see a downside exit position above 20
within 12 months. I see an upside exit position 35-40 within
12 months.

40% P(down-12mo) * 20-20.5 = -2%
60% P(up-12mo) * 40-20.5 = 95%

Risk-adjusted annualized ADPT return = 28%

ADPT is currently #5 on my RAAR list led only by some
high-risk microcaps.
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