A LITTLE BIT FROM NYC Y2K INVESTMENT CONFERENCE
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Kraft Food Presentation included in this link
Message 4288687
I'm not going to be re-capping the conference. Jeff Mitchell came up with some excellent observations.
I'll make one observation. I was appalled by Chuck Phillips (Managing Director, Morgan Stanley) comments regarding embedded systems.
Morgan Stanley ONLY RECENTLY hired someone to investigate embedded systems. "We've evaluated the most extensive embedded systems database that exists - Bell Atlantic's database with info on 8,000 embedded systems." ROFL "While we do see embedded systems as being a potential problem, it won't be as bad as some say." (not exact quote, but spirit of the message.)
Chuck wasn't there for the entire conference. He showed up late on the second day, and all of the speakers had to be re-arranged.
One person from the west coast who came under duress (initially thought the conference was going to have Y2K survivalists - and then became a believer) ... made a comment that I absolutely LOVED!!
Something like this ...
"I don't want to embarrass you, but if we rated your believability factor against the speakers over the past two days, after what we've seen and heard from industry experts, with specific examples ... your believability would be less than 50%."
Dennis Grabow asked specifically about the Oil & Gas industry. Chuck said "they have it well under control". I spoke up (normally you don't challenge people in this format - but, I was p*ssed.)
I said "Shell/Exxon/British Petroleum only discovered last spring about the problem with oil rigs (10,000 embedded systems, deep under water, blah blah blah). Another major oil company only discovered this in Auguest. They all have test rigs in the US, and still haven't figured out how to solve the problem. That doesn't sound to me like they have the problem under control.
"Well that's what Shell told us." (meekly)
And then he said something like, "Since this is a Y2K conference rather than a straight investor conference, I guess I should have expected this reaction." Since he hadn't been there for both days, he didn't realize that half the group knew hardly anything about Y2K. It was the first Y2K investment conference they attended.
It wasn't a large conference - only about 50 people. From around the U.S. Investment bankers, trust funds, fund managers. Ed Yardeni hired someone, who was there, specifically to research embedded systems. She and I are going to become good friends.
The reason the name TAVA came up so frequently, was because many of the speakers were focusing on embedded systems. No one shared their talks beforehand ... it just happened. Most people are now most concerned about embedded systems and supply chain issues.
I had several people come up to me afterwards to get information specifically on TAVA - but, I didn't take a laptop. They'll be getting the info within the next few days.
I've been asked to speak on the west coast and would I be willing to be interviewed by various publications ... Y2K & embedded systems. To community and business groups ... not investment groups. This is what I've always wanted to do. Doesn't pay much, but is extremely gratifying.
Before I forget ... over lunch when I said I was appalled by Morgan Stanley's lack of understanding of the issues ... everyone said ... "that's great" ... gives us the opportunity to get in before they make the problem public.
Have patience. Short-term traders won't. But those of you who have long positions will be well rewarded.
Cheryl
P.S. I went up to Chuck afterwards and told him that Bell-Atlantic's database was miniscule compared to TAVA's database. Chuck didn't want to hear it. He was polite. But, I know how to read body language. Thank g*d I have no money in mutual funds and that I manage my own money and don't rely on anyone else. I'm sure there are a lot of other "Chucks" out there making recommendations and managing other people's money. |
