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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT)
ADPT 14.09-0.4%Nov 14 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jay Lowe who wrote (1961)5/1/1998 8:24:00 PM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen  Read Replies (1) of 5944
 
Jay,

I won't say anything about the market parts since I really haven't a clue. But on the technical issues....

- ADPT screws up bigtime in some technology/business area

This is not all that likely given their track record. That said, if Adaptec suddenly announced they had decided to focus their entire business on making USB chips, I would hit that big eject button *fast*!

- blows fibrechannel with bad design

The fiber channel interface is already on the market and it is not bad. Actually, it looks rather good. It is sort of hard to do a really bad fiber channel design when you have been in on the development of the standard for years. And Adaptec has.

- has severe SYMBIOS integration pains
- SYMBIOS fab ends up useless for future ... big charge

These are possible worries. On the other hand, Adaptec has a good deal of experience integrating acquisitions so I sort of doubt it.

- SCSI cards already disappearing from retail

No they are not. On the contrary; I am having an easier time finding them in retail than at any other time in the past. And as people want to play with digital video and web servers, they will need (Ultra2)SCSI. Don't you think people will play with digital video? I happen to think that will become quite popular.

- Microsoft and IBM announce support for FooChannel I/O subsystem
- i.e., some semi-random technology event happens

Well, IIO is already on the way. But I feel pretty sure that if you could get a look inside Adaptec's labs, you would find a fair amount of IIO work going on. Take a look at their newest Ethernet controllers; they are almost there.

The biggest risk I see is Adaptec's management screwing up big time. And I do not think that is too likely.

Cheers, Torben
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